A wealthy businessman named W. Clement Stone once said that “big doors swing on little hinges.” We should add: So do presidential elections.
Given the Electoral College system, there really isn’t one election for president, but seven. Each side is putting its blood, sweat, tears — and money — into just seven states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada. The other 43, of which Louisiana is one, are all but forgotten.
In 2020, Biden carried Wisconsin, Arizona and Georgia by less than a point. In 2016, Trump won Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin by less than a point. Polls show these states could be that tight again.
in every presidential election since 2000 and will likely do so again. GOP nominees have won an average of 58% of the state’s vote in the last five elections.
Though Louisiana is getting little attention from both presidential campaigns, its future rests heavily upon the federal government. The state has a $51 billion annual budget, with about half of its revenues coming from Washington. Few states are so dependent on federal dollars.
On the table are critical issues — from energy, infrastructure and healthcare to ports, trade, housing, the environment and hurricane protection. What Washington does for — or to — Louisiana over the next four years will be determined by who wins the White House and Congress.
Ron Faucheux
Currently, both the U.S. House speaker, Mike Johnson, and its majority leader, Steve Scalise, are from our state. But will their leadership positions survive the election? It’s possible Republicans will lose their House majority and Johnson and Scalise will be relegated to minority status. Whether that happens depends upon a dozen close House races from California to Nebraska to New York.
Of course, should Republicans take control of the U.S. Senate, Louisiana’s two senators, Bill Cassidy and John Kennedy, will be on the majority side.
Worth pondering is how the presidential election will affect Republican Gov. Jeff Landry and the future of his administration. If Trump is elected, would his close ally Landry leave Baton Rouge for a big job in Washington?
Some Landry backers crow that the U.S. attorney generalship, or another federal post, could be on the governor’s horizon in a second Trump term. While Landry may not want to leave the governor’s mansion so soon, it would surely roil state politics if he exits early. Though Lt. Gov. Billy Nungesser would become governor should Landry resign, capital wags believe the governor would prefer that Attorney General Liz Murrill take his place, but that would have to wait until the next election.
If Kamala Harris wins the presidency, Landry won’t be going to Washington. The question then becomes: What kind of relations would Louisiana have with the new Harris-Walz administration? The answer becomes more complex should Democrats topple the Republican House majority. The state would then have to look to its two likely Democratic U.S. representatives, as well as influential national party players such as Mitch Landrieu and Cedric Richmond — both of whom hold high-ranking positions in the Harris campaign — to pick up the slack.
It’s possible that Trump, if he recaptures the Oval Office, would want Landry to oppose U.S. Sen. Bill Cassidy for reelection in 2026. Although he's a Republican, Cassidy has distanced himself from the former president and even once , though he endorsed Landry in last year’s gubernatorial contest.
The outcome of the presidential election may scramble the Oct. 11, 2025 election for mayor of New Orleans. Should Harris get elected, would she support longtime friend and ally, City Council-at-large member Helena Moreno for mayor? That question is churning City Hall gossip.
As the sitting president, Harris’ endorsement would be a powerful boost for Moreno, particularly among Black women. Other possible candidates for New Orleans mayor — City Council member Oliver Thomas, former Criminal Court Judge Arthur Hunter, state Sen. Royce Duplessis and maybe a private sector entrant or two — would have to recalculate their chances should that happen.
There are other vital elections for Louisiana on Nov. 5, from races for Baton Rouge mayor-president and Congress to judgeships, local offices and the Public Service Commission. There are also numerous ballot proposals.
Swing state or not, Louisiana’s future hangs in the balance. Vote!